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BOOKS PUBLISHED BY MAJOR ACADEMIC PRESSES

The Geriatric Peace: Population Aging and the Decline of War (Oxford University Press, forthcoming).
Ideologies and International Relations (Routledge Press, forthcoming, Jonathan Leader Maynard, co-editor)
Frenemies: When Ideological Enemies Ally (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2022). Security Affairs Series. The book identifies the conditions when ideological enemies are likely to ally against shared material threats.
The Clash of Ideologies: Middle Eastern Politics and American Security (Oxford University Press, 2012). The book examines how ideologies have shaped America's relations with key Muslim-majority states since the end of the Cold War. The book has been reviewed in The Middle East Journal, Mediterranean Quarterly, Nations and Nationalism, Political Studies Review, Democracy and Security, and H-Diplo|International Security Studies Forum (a partnership between H-Diplo and the International Studies Association's Security Studies Section and the journals International Security, Security Studies, and the Journal of Strategic Studies).
The Arab Spring: Change and Resistance in the Middle East (Westview Press 2013, co-edited with David Lesch). The book examines the origins, reactions, and consequences of the mass uprisings across much of the Arab world that began in 2010. A second edition with a new subtitle (The Hope and Reality of the Uprisings) was published in 2017 by Routledge Press. The book has been reviewed in The Middle East Journal, Mathal: Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Multidisciplinary Studies, Midwest Book Review, History Teacher, Midwest Book Review, Middle East Media and Book Reviews Online
The Middle East and the United States: History, Politics, and Ideologies (6thedition, Routledge, 2018, co-edited with David Lesch). The book examines relations between key Middle Eastern countries and the United States from the Cold War to the present day. (Lesch and I also published together the fifth edition of this volume). The book has been reviewed in Choice, International Journal of World Peace, Foreign Affairs, Journal of Third World Studies, and Diplomatic History.
The Ideological Origins of Great Power Politics, 1789-1989, (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2005). Security Affairs Series, series editors: Robert Art; Robert Jervis, Stephen Walt. The book examines the impact of political ideologies on great powers' foreign policies at critical times over the last two centuries. A paperback edition was issued in November 2007. The book has been reviewed in Foreign Affairs, Perspectives on Politics, Perspectives on Political Science, and International History Review.
PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES

"When Do Ideological Enemies Ally?" International Security, Vol. 46, No. 1 (Summer 2021), pp. 104-146.
"The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful," (co-authored with Deborah Jordan Brooks, Stephen G. Brooks, and Brian Greenhill), International Security, Vol. 43, No. 3 (Winter 2018/2019), pp. 53-95. The article is the first to develop and test an argument that links states' age structures to the propensity to aggress internationally (acceptance rate of 5-7% at the time we submitted the article).
"Ideological Polarity and Balancing in Great Power Politics," Security Studies, Vol. 23, No. 4 (December 2014), pp. 715-753. The article examines how the number of distinct ideological groups in a system affects the efficiency of the balancing process (acceptance rate of 10 % at the time I submitted the article).
"Missed Ideological Opportunities and George W. Bush's Middle Eastern Policies," Security Studies, Vol. 21, No. 3 (September 2012), pp. 416-454. The article demonstrates how Bush administration officials' ideological rigidity on some issues, paradoxically, prevented these leaders from taking advantage of the full range of ways in which ideologies shape international relations, to the detriment of U.S. interests in the Middle East (acceptance rate of 12.5 % at the time I submitted the article).
"A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations," International Security, Vol. 32, No. 1 (Summer 2007), pp. 112-147. The article examines the impact of global population aging on U.S. Security interests. This article has been posted, among other places, on U.S. embassy websites under the category of "significant documents". It was also the featured discussion in Mike Nizza's New York Times on-line column, "The Lede: Notes on the News," July 12, 2007 and has been referenced in The New York Times Magazine and USA Today (acceptance rate of 5-10 % at the time I submitted the article).
"The United States and the End of the Cold War: Reactions to Shifts in Soviet Power, Policies, or Domestic Politics?" International Organization,Vol. 61, No. 1 (Winter 2007), pp. 145-179. This article tests various competing explanations of the end of the Cold War from the American point of view (acceptance rate of 5.3 % at the time I submitted the article).
"Ideology and Alliances: British and French External Balancing Decisions in the 1930s." Security Studies, Vol. 12, No. 4 (Summer 2003), pp. 34-79. This article examines the impact of political ideologies on British and French socialists' and conservatives' perceptions of threat and consequent balancing policies toward the other great powers in the 1930s (acceptance rate of 13 % at the time I submitted the article).
"Prospect Theory and the Cuban Missile Crisis," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 45, No. 2 (June 2001), pp. 241-270. This article uses a decision-theoretic model of choice and primary source evidence to test the relative explanatory weights of expected-utility and prospect theories for the key events of the Cuban missile crisis (acceptance rate of 13 % at the time I submitted the article).
"Reinhold Niebuhr's 鈥楥hristian Pragmatism:' A Principled Alternative to Consequentialism," The Review of Politics, Vol. 61, No. 4 (Fall 1999), pp. 605-636. This article offers an examination and reinterpretation of Niebuhr's theory of ethics (acceptance rate of 10 % at the time I submitted the article).
ARTICLES IN EDITED VOLUMES

"Aging and Foreign Policy Preferences," in The Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Ageing, David E. Bloom, Alfonso Sousa-Poza, Uwe Sunde(Routledge, forthcoming)
"Population Aging and Grand Strategy," in Ronald Krebs and Thierry Balzacq, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Grand Strategy (Oxford University Press, forthcoming).
"Political Worldviews in International Relations: The Importance of Ideologies and Foreign Policy Traditions" (with Henry R. Nau), in Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., Uncertainty and Its Discontents: Worldviews in World Politics (Cambridge University Press, Forthcoming).
"The Rise and Fall of the Turkish-Israeli Alliance," in Robert O. Freedman, Israel Under Netanyahu: Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy (London: Routledge, 2020), pp. 216-241.
"Ideology and America's Nuclear Crisis with Iran," in David W. Lesch and Mark L. Haas, eds., The Middle East and the United States: History, Politics, and Ideologies (Routledge, 2018, 6th edition), pp. 336-364.
"The Arab Uprisings from the US Perspective," in David W. Lesch and Mark L. Haas, eds., The Middle East and the United States: History, Politics, and Ideologies(Routledge, 2018, 6th edition), pp. 405-433.
"Population Aging and International Conflict," Peer-reviewed chapter in The Oxford Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory, in William R. Thompson, ed., vol. 3 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2018), pp. 91-105.
"Turkey and the Arab Spring: The Rise and Fall of Democracy Promotion in a Revolutionary Era, " in Mark L. Haas and David W. Lesch, The Arab Spring: The Hope and Reality of the Uprisings, 2nd edition (Routledge Press, 2017), pp. 194-219.
"Uprisings in the Arab World: Tyranny, Anarchy, and (Perhaps) Democracy," in ibid. (co-authored with David Lesch), pp. 1-9.
"Non-Arab Countries and the Arab Spring," in ibid. (co-authored with David Lesch), pp. 165-173.
"Population Ageing and the Future of the Great Powers," in Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev, eds., Political Demography and Global Ageing (Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House, 2015), pp. 133-146.
"The United States and the Arab Spring: Opportunities and Threats in a Revolutionary Era," in David W. Lesch and Mark L. Haas, eds., The Middle East and the United States: History, Politics, and Ideologies (Westview Press, 2013, revised fifth edition), pp. 501-534.
"Soviet Grand Strategy in the Interwar Years: Ideology as Realpolitik," in The Challenge of Grand Strategy: The Great Powers and the Broken Balance between the World Wars, edited by Jeff Taliaferro, Norrin Ripsman, and Steve Lobell (Cambridge University Press, 2012), pp. 279-307.
"Ideology and Iran's American Policies, 1997-2008," in David W. Lesch and Mark L. Haas, eds., The Middle East and the United States: History, Politics, and Ideologies (Westview Press, 2012, fifth edition), pp. 434-455.
"Introduction," in ibid., (co-authored with David Lesch), pp. 1-12.
"Turkey and the Arab Spring: Ideological Promotion in a Revolutionary Era," in Mark L. Haas and David W. Lesch, The Arab Spring: Change and Resistance in the Middle East (Westview Press, 2013), pp. 152-173.
"Introduction," in ibid., (co-authored with David Lesch), pp. 1-10.
"America's Golden Years? U.S. Security in an Aging World," in Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics, edited by Jack Goldstone, Monica Duffy Toft, and Eric Kaufmann (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012), pp. 49-62. This chapter was quoted in The Economist (May 19, 2012) and a lead article in The Atlantic (May 2016).
OTHER SCHOLARLY PUBLICATIONS

"God's Transcendence as an Antidote to Political Polarization," Providence, January 18, 2021.
"War-Weary America's Little-Known Deterrent: Its Aging Population," The National Interest, April 2, 2020.
"Can Great Powers Discern Intentions?," (with John M. Owen), Correspondence piece in International Security, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Winter 2015/16), pp. 197-215.
"Population Aging and the Future of NATO," published on the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030 blog (the blog is by invitation only). July 2012.
"Ideologies and International Relations," The Montreal Review, March 2012, part of an invited on-line symposium with Daron Asemogly (MIT) and James Robison (Harvard), Joyce Appleby (UCLA), Dani Rodrik (Harvard), Bruce Cumings (Chicago University), Jean-Pierre Filiu (Paris School of International Affairs), and Wolfgang Streeck (Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies).
"Global Aging: Opportunities and Threats to American Security," Public Policy & Aging Report Vol. 17, No. 4 (Fall 2007), pp. 7-11.

INVITED PRESENTATIONS, SEMINARS, AND WORKSHOPS

"Political Worldviews in International Relations: The Importance of Ideologies and Foreign Policy Traditions," talk presented (via Zoom) at workshop on Worldviews in International Relations, Cornell University, June 8, 2020
"Population Aging and Grand Strategy," talk presented at Grand Strategy Workshop at West Point, US Military Academy, September 13, 2019.
"The Demographic Transition Theory of War," talk presented to members of the US national security community, Washington, D. C., May 31, 2019.
"The Rise and Fall of the Turkish-Israeli Alliance," talk presented at 14thLavy Colloquium, "Israel Under Netanyahu," Johns Hopkins University, October 7, 2018
"Frenemies: When Do Ideological Enemies Ally?" talk presented to the political science department, Brigham Young University, September 21, 2017.
"Demography and Conflict," lead brief given at the "Human Geography Futures Seminar" sponsored by the US military's Joint Staff and the Applied Physics Lab at Johns Hopkins University, September 13-14, 2016
"Demography and Security in the Middle East," lecture given at the Army War College, January 6, 2016
"Opportunities and Challenges" Workshop sponsored by the US military's Joint Staff and the Applied Physics Lab at Johns Hopkins University, September 15-17, 2015. The purpose of the workshop was to explore the sources and conditions of future military conflicts and their potential impact on the joint forces.
"Combinations" Workshop sponsored by the U.S. Military's Joint Staff, Andrews Air Force Base, May 5-8, 2015. The goal of the workshop was to help develop a comprehensive understanding of the potential future global environment, with the intent to identify and prioritize the most pressing future military challenges and opportunities.
"The Human Elements of Military Operations," Workshop at the United States Army War College, January 13-14, 2015.
"Population Aging and the Probability of Great Power Conflict," talk presented at the Conference on Political Demography focusing on "Global Aging and Russia's Future," The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, December 12-13, 2014.
"Population Aging and the future of the US-Japanese Alliance", talk presented at the conference on "The Foreign Policy and Security Implications of Global Aging for the Future of Japan-U.S. Relations," co-sponsored by the Woodrow Wilson Center and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Tokyo, October 9, 2014.
"Ideologies and Alliances," invited talk at Waseda University, Graduate School of Political Science, Tokyo, October 10, 2014.
"Populations and Demographics," keynote address at a seminar on "Human Geography" sponsored by the US military's Joint Staff and the Applied Physics Lab at Johns Hopkins University, June 18, 2014. I was a participant in small groups at the seminar on June 19 and 20.
"Globalization, Power Politics, and Demography," Air War College address to Class of 2014, International Security Studies program and Global Security curriculum, March 17, 2014.
"'Ideological Polarity' and Balancing in Great Power Politics," talk presented at the Dickey Center for International Understanding, Dartmouth University, April 10, 2013
"Ideology and International Relations," talk presented at the Graduate Fellows Speakers' Series (only one person is invited by this group each year), Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, Cornell University, September 27, 2012
An hour-long interview with the podcast "New Books in Middle Eastern Studies," which is part of the "New Books Network," July 6, 2012 on my book, The Clash of Ideologies.
"Geriatric Peace/Geriatric War: The Security Implications of Demographic Decline," talk presented at the Conference on "Aging Asia: Population Decline and Great Power Politics," Naval War College, May 24-25, 2012
"European Perspectives on Democracy Promotion and the Arab Spring," talk presented at the European Center for Excellence and the Global Studies Center, University of Pittsburgh, April 19-20, 2012
"America's Golden Years?," talk presented at the Environmental Change and Security Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D. C., January 10, 2012
"Ideologies and American Security in the Middle East," talk presented at the Institute for Global and International Studies, George Washington University, April 29, 2010
"Reinhold Niebuhr's 鈥楥hristian Realism,'" talk presented at Lehigh University, March 25, 2010
Invited participant, "Strategy Implementation Seminar," Army War College, Carlisle, PA, July 21-23, 2009.
"Demography and International Security," talk presented at the presented at "Demography and Security: The Politics of Population Change" conference, Harvard University, May 1-2, 2009.
"The Demographics of Discord," talk presented at the "Global Trends 2025" conference, co-sponsored by the Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs and the National Intelligence Council, hosted by the George Bush School of Government and Foreign Service, Texas A & M University, November 2008
"The Future of NATO," talk presented at the Model NATO Conference, University of Pittsburgh, European Union Center of Excellence and the Center for West European Studies, November 13, 2008
"A Geriatric Peace?," The Agenda with Steve Paikin, May 5, 2008, television interview on TVO (a publicly-funded, educational media organization available in Ontario; TVO reaches an average of 3.5 million viewers per week).
"Population Aging and Security Challenges for the Great Powers," talk presented at the University of Pittsburgh, European Union Center of Excellence and the Center for West European Studies, March 28, 2008.
"Incorporating Social Science Insights into Deterrence Assessment," Sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, an agency of the United States Department of Defense, January 2008
"Ideologies and Great Power Politics." talk presented at the University of Pittsburgh, European Union Center of Excellence and the Center for West European Studies, January 2006.
"Ideology, Threat Perception, and Great Power Politics," talk presented at Princeton University, Center for International Studies, January 2003
"Ideology, Threat Perception, and Great Power Politics," talk presented at Harvard University, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, April 2003
"Ideology, Threat Perception, and Great Power Politics," talk presented at Harvard University, Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, September 2001
SCHOLARLY PRESENTATIONS, COMPETITIVELY REVIEWED (since 2004)

"Worldviews and World Politics," roundtable at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, September 2017
"Where Ideas Matter," roundtable at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, PA, September 2016
"A Demographic Peace? How Demographic Variables Shape International Conflict" (with Deborah Jordan Brooks, Stephen Brooks, and Brian Greenhill), International Studies Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, March 2016
"Frenemies: When Do Ideological Enemies Ally?" American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Washington, D. C., August 2014
"Ideological Polarity and Great Power Balancing," International Studies Association Annual Meeting, Toronto, March 2014
"Ideological Polarity and Great Power Balancing," International Studies Association Northeast Annual Meeting, Baltimore, November 2012
"Birds of Different Feathers Flocking Together: When Do Ideological Enemies Ally?," American Political Science Association annual meeting, Washington, D. C., September 2010
"America's Golden Years? U.S. Security in an Aging World," American Political Science Association annual meeting, Toronto, August 2009
"When Do Ideological Enemies Ally?" International Studies Association Annual Meeting, New York, February 2009
"American Security in an Aging World," American Political Science Association annual meeting, Chicago, September 2007.
"Neo-Classical Realism and the Importance of 鈥業deological Consensus' in International Relations," American Political Science Association annual meeting, Philadelphia, September 2006. This paper won the Best Paper Award from the American Political Science Association's Foreign Policy Division for the 2006 conference.
"British and French 1930s Appeasement Policies: Products of Tripolar Ideological Politics," American Political Science Association annual meeting, Washington, D.C., September 2005
"U.S. Foreign Policies at the End of the Cold War: Reactions to Shifts in Soviet Power, Behavior, or Ideology?", American Political Science Association annual meeting, Chicago, September 2004

• McAnulty College Faculty Excellence Award for Scholarship, spring 2021
• Raymond J. Kelley Endowed Chair in International Relations, July 2017-June 2022
• McAnulty College Faculty Excellence Award for Teaching, spring 2015
• McAnulty College Faculty Excellence Award for Scholarship, spring 2014
• Best Paper Award from the American Political Science Association's Foreign Policy Division for the 2006 conference
• McAnulty College Faculty Excellence Award for Teaching, spring 2015
• "Honorable Mention" for Duquesne's university-wide teacher of the year competition, sponsored by Duquesne's Chapter of Omicron Delta Kappa, The National Leadership Honor Society, spring 2011.
• Finalist for Duquesne's university-wide teacher of the year competition, sponsored by Duquesne Chapter of Omicron Delta Kappa, The National Leadership Honor Society, spring 2006.